SLEEPERS/BUSTS
By: Tim Barth JuL 24 2022
SLEEPERS
QB Sleeper- Matt Ryan - So looking at QBs I wanted to find someone I could get late in the draft who I felt could far outperform their ADP. Matt Ryan is currently the 19th QB coming off of the board just ahead of where he finished last year at 20. Ryans move to the Colts could be just what he needed to reignite his career; he walks into a vastly improved offensive line along with having one of the best running backs in the league to take the pressure off of him. I am also excited to see a jump from Michael Pittman with a solid QB to throw to him. If you draft Ryan its as your 2nd QB and it's within the last 4 rounds of your draft so you have nothing to lose.
RB Sleeper- Rashaad Penny -Rashaad Penny - Penny had a huge finish to the season last year, so the fact that Ken Walker is going off the board before him blows me away. Yes I think we all worry about the chance that he ends up with another injury but what if he doesn't there is possibility we are talking about him as a top 12 RB next year. He amassed 671 yds and 6 TDs in the final 5 games last season and the fantasy world seems to have forgotten. So please everyone keep drafting Walker in the 6th round and I'll take all the shares of Penny in the 9th round as a possible league winner.
WR Sleeper- Allen Lazard -Lazard could end up being the steal of the draft at the WR position, he is currently sitting at the WR49 in ADP which is absurd. He finished last season as the WR44 with Devante Adams and MVS still on the team, so to say he will regress is laughable. Yes, I get it the Christian Watson hype he's the new shiny toy in the offense, I also know that Aaron Rodgers has never really had great chemistry with his rookie WR's. Lazards floor is well ahead of his current ADP (very well could vault up with news from a main stream news outlet.) In the event Lazard is at his current ADP in drafts I will be taking him every where I can.
TE Sleeper- Austin Hooper -Hooper is in a great situation and there are already reports coming out that he has good chemistry with Ryan Tannehill. With Burks having Asthma issues and Woods coming off of an ACL tear this is probably one of Hoopers best chances to succeed so far in his career. If you are waiting on TE he will cost you nothing more than a late round flyer with the opportunity to possibly end up with a low end TE1 if it pays off.
BUSTS
QB Bust- Patrick Mahomes - Ok before everyone starts jumping all over this take and saying I'm crazy hear me out. I'm not saying Mahomes will be outside the top 12 QBs or that he's a bad QB. I'm saying he is not going to meet the expectations of where he's being drafted. Mahomes is the 2nd QB coming off of the board normally in the 3rd round, in the past 3 years he's finished 4th, 6th. and 8th amongst QB's. So why would you take him as the 2nd QB off the board with an entire new receiving group, I get it he still has Kelce but I'm not touching Mahomes at that price this year.
RB Bust- Dalvin Cook -Ok so Cook is going off the board at RB5, he is coming off a season where he finished RB15. Cook hasn't played more than 14 games in the past 5 years and he's getting to the age where running backs start regressing. We can expect Cook to miss some time this season so I don't see him finishing within the top 5 RB's. Last year was an outlier year with 5 players finishing inside the top 12 that were 26 or older, the previous 4 years combined only 7 players that were 26 or older finished in the top 12. So other players to keep an eye on that fall into that category are Ekeler, Conner, Elliott, Fournette, Henry, CMC, and Jones. Obviously there is a lot of talent on that list so to say none of them will be in the top 12 is crazy but Cook is my pick.
WR Bust- AJ Brown - WR was a little harder to pick a bust candidate for the year. Looking through the top 12 in ADP, I decided on Brown. Brown has never finished inside of where he is currently being drafted at WR11. He's going into an offense that will primarily run first with a running QB leading it. There are also more weapons in the passing game than he has had to deal with in Tennessee, before anyone mentions Julio Jones, he was well out of his prime. DeVonta Smith still has chemistry with Hurts between college and last year so he will still dig into the target share as well as Dallas Goedert. Browns current end of 2nd round/early 3rd round ADP is a little too steep for me.
TE Bust- Mike Gesicki -Gesicki has been a pretty under the radar successful TE for fantasy over the last 3 years finishing in the Top 12, but don't expect the same this year. In case everyone missed the news Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson are in town and Waddle is still around. He finished last season with 112 targets. with the new receivers coming in I very much doubt Gesicki hits over 100 targets this year, so to be inside the top 12 he would have to up his 2 TD totals to at least 6 or 7 which I doubt happens. I would pass on Gesicki who is going at TE12 and take a TE like Irv Smith or Cole Kmet going the next round who have higher upside in the offenses they are in.